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Crime Prevention Proposal Using SARA Model, Crime Analysis Triangle, & ANOVA


Crime Prevention Proposal Using SARA Model, Crime Analysis Triangle, & ANOVA


My proposal to the state of Florida will be recommending the implementation of a comprehensive crime prevention program addressing law enforcement, the courts and corrections of adult and juvenile justice within the states jurisdiction in efforts of reducing crime. The economy of the state of Florida would benefit the reduction of overall costs by reducing crimes and at the same time improve the local communities. Collecting data based on statistical analysis of crime of three comparable cities in population size Chicago, Illinois; Brooklyn, New York; and Los Angeles, California and performing sample analysis using the SARA model and the Crime Analysis Triangle and ANOVA will help to form a rational hypothesis when comparing to three similar jurisdictions and national data by using analysis of variance.


The recommendation of a funding strategy along with my proposal to the state of Florida will improve local communities and reduce crime. An analysis will compare various crime prevention programs and see which is more beneficial at meeting the needs of the local community. My anticipated outcomes for the short and long-term goals will be presented along with the statistical crime analysis between three comparable cities and three similar jurisdictions. In conclusion I will explain how crime prevention programs affect social justice within the community.

Addressing the state of Florida, my new proposal for reducing crime and improving the local communities of each county will meet the state requirements and stay within the states jurisdiction. A new comprehensive crime prevention program will improve efforts of law enforcement, courts, and corrections while improving the states economy. Applying the Problem Solving Process of crime analysis and using the SARA model will handle areas in cities where multiple crimes take place in efforts to focus on each crime and work on reducing the criminal behaviors. Investing in this crime prevention program will prove to be effective and improve the economy by reducing the amount of crime and attracting more tourists which Florida depends on.

Increase in crime in large cities will only deter tourists from wanting to visit the state. Using an ANOVA system to process data from large populations and taking a sample of at least 100 comparing to three other cities of different states in similar populations can show specific variables relating in association with specific types of crimes. According to Tarlow, K. R. (2016), “The analysis of variance (ANOVA) method is the most popular statistical technique used to compare samples. Statistical tests are often used to tell if the observed differences between sample means are due to chance variability, or if they are ‘statistically significant’. ANOVA tests the null hypothesis that population means are the same against the alternative that at least two are different. In ANOVA, all mean differences are tested simultaneously instead of one pair at a time, as in a t-test.” (Pg16Para1)

Focus on law enforcement and the areas of high crime of three comparable cities in population size being Chicago, Illinois; Brooklyn, New York; and Los Angeles, California and comparing to three similar jurisdictions such as Detroit, Michigan; Boston, Massachusetts; and Denver, Colorado. Each state and city of the six representations have similar populations and crime rates related to violence and gun violence given they are such wide diverse populations and mix of cultures within the large cities which is more susceptible to higher amounts of crimes and the use of guns associated with violence. Using the Problem Solving Process and SARA model have helped law enforcement in multiple states with handling crimes in large cities by analyzing each individual problem and finding a solution. The Problem Solving Process is a crime analysis designed to help solve problems in 60 small steps. This implements learning about problem oriented policing, the study of environmental criminology, scanning for crime problems, analyzing in depth, finding practical responses, assessing impact, and communicating effectively.

The four components of the SARA model are Scanning, Analysis, Response, and Assessment. How the SARA model contributed to identifying and narrowing the crime or criminal issue is through the focus of the four problem solving stages of scanning, analysis, response, and assessment. According to Clarke, R. V., & Eck, J. E. (2011), “You will find that SARA will help you and your team keep on track. This is the acronym formulated by John Eck and Bill Spelman to refer to the four problem-solving stages of Scanning, Analysis, Response and Assessment. This process is very similar to many other analytical processes, including the standard crime analysis process of collection, collation, analysis, dissemination, and feedback.” (Pg1Step7Para2)

Why it’s important to proceed through each step consecutively and not skip steps is missing a more solid and logical solution to the problem objective. If one step is missed then it could take twice as long to find the solution which would be more effective. There could also be a misguided reasoning or judgement made by skipping steps based on bias or stereotyping in order to find a fast solution with a criminal related problem. In the worst circumstances it could actually violate the law and the officer would be held responsible.

For example with using a type of crime analysis in a case study with action research methodology of local crime with something similar to SARA called (CAC) The Crime Analysis Consortium which uses data based evidence to form an objective solution to a problem. According to Tillyer, R., Tillyer, M. A., McCluskey, J., Cancino, J., Todaro, J., & McKinnon, L. (2014), “For example, one recent challenge facing law enforcement agencies is the increasing requirement to perform their official functions – and at times, other functions – with fewer resources. Partially in response to this need, agencies are embracing crime analysis as a method to understand the vast amounts of data they collect, identify crime problems, and prioritize their responses to those problems. Given the theoretical and analytic skills often possessed by researchers improving crime analysis is an area that has significant overlap and relevancy for researcher–practitioner partnerships. The Crime Analysis Consortium (CAC) was developed to specifically address this issue and offers a case study in action research. Through a description of the CAC and its work, we aim to contribute to the growing knowledge regarding effective researcher–practitioner partnerships.” (Pg405Para1-2)

Focus on courts and with the juvenile justice system and the sentencing processes of juveniles in courts regarding their rights opposed to adults having more rights than a juvenile would have in court. “On the sentencing table, a judge is to find the point at which the base offense level intersects with the offender’s criminal history category — a sentencing range. At the second step, the court may consider motions for departure from this range. As enacted, the SRA required sentencing courts to select a sentence from within the Guideline range unless “there existed an aggravating or mitigating circumstance of a kind, or to a degree, not adequately taken into consideration by the Sentencing Commission.” (Harvard Law Review, 2017)(Pg997Para1)

During the sentencing process juveniles do not have the same rights as adults, this can be a moral and ethical issue since through the same crimes, each juvenile is given different sentencing measures. Some juveniles are given a second chance and work through correctional programs which rehabilitate juveniles to learn new skills and manage their emotional problems through therapeutic measures while other juveniles are sentenced for life in prison without having another chance. This proposes an opportunity for a new legislative guideline which gives rights for juveniles to have the opportunity for rehabilitation programs instead of the judge making the decision for them without giving an alternative. The moral and ethical values come in to this scenario by looking at human rights and taking away a youths rights for life would be completely taking their whole life from them.

In some cases juveniles with repetitive criminal behaviors were given a proactive course of reintegrating psychological projects to help improve the way of thinking and handling stress with decreasing the risk of criminal behaviors. This proved to be effective for learning how to become successful and in most cases ending criminal behaviors. Not all states have this opportunity for juveniles with criminal behaviors so, the case studies were based on the ones receiving the opportunities through correctional facilities. This was in place for juveniles even involved with homicides which were rehabilitated. It’s true in certain environments its predestined for criminal behaviors which affects judgement and life goals.

With child rearing and childhood development there are different perspectives on raising children and how to implement discipline. Its true in some states certain forms of child rearing can be listed as abuse. I think not being able to defend yourself in school can be extreme and things have changed a lot today. I think in society it is to the point of a total manipulation of the U.S. Constitution especially with freedom of speech and hate speech being so freely accepted regardless of the vulgarity and cruelty it can be and how it can impact and persuade other members of society or affect judgement. I think the future depends on the next generation for improving the way of thinking and handling of situations. It would start with removing a political agenda and the main variables for provoking irrational and violent behaviors. All problems should be approach with equality for all parties and creating a unity through understanding. The handling of gun violence for example, in Chicago would be a regulation of drug imported and distributed since the drugs are the main source of why gun violence is happening unrelated to owning the guns.

Adult justice cases and courts uses a utilitarian concept in most cases. Rational choice is a utilitarian concept of the choice based on what benefits the many opposed to the few and deterrence theory used to inact punishments to fit the crime to prevent future crimes of the same nature. How these theories help us understand the relationship between criminals and the courts is based on the type of crime, criminal, how much was affected, and the evidence presented. The judge makes a decision based on evidence submitted in court to form a final verdict of either a utilitarian concept of how serving a certain amount of time can benefit others or a method of deterrence theory making an example out of the criminal by placing a punishment which others would see and deterring the same behaviors from being a cause of a criminal act.

The results we would expect to see if these theories are correct in assessing criminal activity would most likely be in favor of law enforcement and the judges final ruling opposed to any representation of an attorney present. Using a utilitarian concept with rational choice and deterrence theory the criminal would always be prosecuted by either serving time, facing a punishment such as a fine, community service, or rights, facing serving time and punishment, or facing the death penalty. The severity of crime would determine the possible prosecution outcome. In cases of foreign and international criminals, it can be tricky since there is diplomatic immunity and any criminal no matter how severe the crime would be protected by their foreign or international status and gain immunity from the state punishment. According to IRVING, E., (2014), “When an international organization establishes its headquarters in a state, its legal relationship with that state must be carved out. This legal relationship will govern the distribution of jurisdiction between the two entities, thereby affecting their respective international law obligations. This is particularly so for human rights obligations, given that a state’s international obligations towards individuals are inextricably linked to its jurisdiction. Where the international organization is an international criminal tribunal (ICT), this human rights element merits particular attention, given the inherent involvement of individuals in every stage of the international criminal justice process.” (Pg470-480Para1)

Using deterrence theories in courts I would present the motives of why in the first place the criminal or innocent individual being prosecuted as a criminal would want to commit the crime in the first place and based on those aspects how it would of benefitted them in which it wouldn’t and be an unmotivated act. In defense it is a presumption of the individual being placed at the center of the crime when they were not involved.  Using rational choice with a traditional prosecution techniques use diversion methods in courts to defend a criminal during prosecution by questioning the methods of gathering evidence which can be fought in defense such as for example an unwarranted police search would mean the evidence obtained in that unwarranted search would be rendered invalid to use as evidence in court. The same is for unauthorized phone recordings and taking pictures of the individual presented in court can also be rendered invalid evidence and set the criminal free which could be actually an innocent individual.

Focus on corrections with adult and juvenile justice associated with brain dysfunctions and mental health analyses the similarities from a psychological perspective of mental health and criminal behaviors or criminal activity. The jail and prison population within the United States and how the majority of the population within prisons are mentally ill without treatment and which is far more in capacity than the individuals within mental health institutions receiving treatment. The connection to a cognitive deficit or mental illness and the treatment of the prisoners being confined contributing to a mental illness if a criminal is not mentally ill. According to Kupers, T. A. (2015), “The growing proportion of prisoners with serious mental illness created a huge over-subscription for correctional mental health services and a glaring crisis in correctional mental health care today. For example, many prisoners with serious mental illness are warehoused in prison segregation units, where isolation and idleness exacerbate their mental illness.

Others are consigned to general population units where mental health treatment is very thin, and they are too often victimized. Even when the prisoner in crisis is identified, and, for instance placed in an “observation cell” while he presents an imminent risk of suicide, on average there is too little actual treatment going on in the observation cells.” (Pg121Para3) For the prevention of future crimes it would involve positive reinforcement and therapy for criminals in corrections programs to help rebuild psychosocial skills and build strengths where there are cognitive deficits. This would help an individual rebuild their self-esteem and self-worth which would improve overall mental health and well-being. Crime prevention and brain dysfunction can relate when an individual with a brain dysfunction has other motivating factors such as a history of child abuse and or problems with psychosocial skills and cognitive functioning from early childhood.

Other contributing factors would be environmental meaning the family lifestyle and cultural ethical values. Society influence and other environmental such as childhood friends and if from childhood or adolescence the participation in drugs or binge drinking. Previous criminal history and or rebellion leading to petty crimes such as vandalism and theft. Considering all of those factors and emotional problems or disorders associated with aggression then it is highly likely in relation with a brain dysfunction. This means the criminal acts in question would be repetitive since it affects the individual in question on a psychological level. According to Pingault, J., Cote, S. M., Lacourse, E., Galera, C., Vitro, F., & Tremblay, R. E. (2013), “All predictors, including hyperactivity, were significantly associated with criminality in bivariate analyses.

In multivariate survival models of criminality: inattention was not a significant predictor anymore; hyperactivity trajectories had a small multivariate contribution which was significant for two trajectories (‘‘High mother only’’ and ‘‘Descending’’ trajectories) but only marginally significant for the ‘‘High mother/teacher’’ trajectory; in contrast, physical aggression trajectories were all highly significant, e.g. for the ‘‘High mother/ teacher’’ trajectory (aHR: 3.44; 95% CI: 2.43–4.87). Being male and living in a family with high levels of adversity also contributed significantly to the prediction of criminality in the multivariate survival analysis.” (Pg3Para6)

Many juveniles and adults in jail or prison do have brain dysfunctions such as mental illness and diseases which are two different things. Other types of brain dysfunctions are genetic and hereditary such as autism spectrum disorder or schizophrenia. Psychoticism is a reaction associate with personality disorder which can also be related to a serious type of bipolar disorder untreated. A psychopath is more of a psychosocial disorder derived from a long history of childhood abuse and exposure to serious trauma which affects the ability to process and or feel emotions however there are triggers associated with certain emotions. Aggression itself can be a derivative of many things such a being provoked like in a heated argument and in that moment of passion someone is seriously injured or there’s an attempted murder or homicide.

Crime prevention in local communities and community-oriented policing programs are designed to help prevent crimes and improve local communities. According to Randol, B. M., & Gaffney, M. (2014), “Many law enforcement agencies faced with resource constraints have embraced the COP philosophy as an innovative solution to building bridges with their communities in controlling crime, and maintaining order.” (Pg234Para1) This is how local communities can make an effort in preventing future crimes which disrupt families and especially kids and juveniles from being influenced in those crimes. Sometimes communities have security to help deter criminals and address criminal situations working along with the local law enforcement department or agencies.

Focus on crime prevention in neighborhoods there’s things like neighborhood watch or local patrols at various times to help prevent theft. In large cities a community effort in deterring crime would be reporting anything suspicious and out of place to the local authorities since it can be too dangerous to get involved with a possible criminal if they are distributing drugs. There’s something similar police have done in New York with Stop-and-Frisk by stopping possible suspicious individuals whom may be distributing or using drugs which also have guns and illegally obtained guns. In most cases its people with a previous criminal offense or history of being jailed or imprisoned that obtain illegal weapons and continue to be involved with other criminals. According to Saunders, J., Lundberg, R., Braga, A., Ridgeway, G., & Miles, J. (2015), “Evidence-based crime prevention is a part of a larger and increasingly expanding movement in social policy to use scientific research evidence to guide program development and implementation.” (Pg414Para1) Using a method of evidence based practices for crime prevention is effective with communities.

In conclusion, applying Problem Solving Process of crime analysis and using the SARA model along with the Crime Analysis Triangle and ANOVA will help to form a rational hypothesis when comparing to three similar jurisdictions and national data by using analysis of variance. Using a comprehensive crime prevention program addressing law enforcement, the courts and corrections of adult and juvenile justice within the states jurisdiction will reduce crimes in the state of Florida and improve the economy by attracting more tourists. With community programs working along with law enforcement and a focus on crime prevention programs within the state will increase confidence in crime prevention for local communities.





Tarlow, K. R. (2016). Teaching Principles of Inference with ANOVA. Teaching Statistics: An International Journal For Teachers, 38(1), 16-21.


Randol, B. M., & Gaffney, M. (2014). Are Block Watch volunteers different than volunteers in community-oriented policing programs? Findings from a mature COPS setting. Police Practice & Research, 15(3), 234-248. doi:10.1080/15614263.2013.815386

IRVING, E., (2014). The Relationship between the International Criminal Court and its Host State: The Impact on Human Rights. Leiden Journal Of International Law, 27(2), 479-493. doi:10.1017/S0922156514000016

Kupers, T. A. (2015). A COMMUNITY MENTAL HEALTH MODEL IN CORRECTIONS. Stanford Law & Policy Review, 26(1), 119-158.

Pingault, J., Cote, S. M., Lacourse, E., Galera, C., Vitro, F., & Tremblay, R. E. (2013). Childood Hyperactivity, Physical Aggression and Criminality: A 19-Year Prospective Population-Based Study. Plos ONE, 8(5), 1-7. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0062594

Tillyer, R., Tillyer, M. A., McCluskey, J., Cancino, J., Todaro, J., & McKinnon, L. (2014). Researcher-practicioner partnerships and crime analysis: A case study in action research. Police Practice & Research: An International Journal, 15(5), 404-418. doi:10.1080/15614263.2013.829321

Saunders, J., Lundberg, R., Braga, A., Ridgeway, G., & Miles, J. (2015). A Synthetic Control Approach to Evaluating Place-Based Crime Interventions. Journal Of Quantitative Criminology, 31(3), 413-434. Doi:10.1007/s10940-014-9226-5

Clarke, R. V., & Eck, J. E. (2011). Crime analysis for problem solvers in 60 small steps (Links to an external site.)Links to an external site. (Links to an external site.)Links to an external site.. Retrieved from http://www.popcenter.org/learning/60steps/index.cfm?page=Welcome (Links to an external site.)Links to an external site.

For more information go to Crime Analysis for Problem Solvers in 60 Small Steps


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